RADICL People Predictions for 2024

There is significant pressure in the system.  We are in the midst of a socio-technical shift we haven’t seen since the internet. Political dynamics are extremely polarized. Generational shifts are impacting social norms and culture. And protracted economic and cost pressure is top of mind for company leaders and individual consumers.  All of these pressures are shaping businesses, leaders, workers and HR - and they bring with them opportunities to not just react, but to do things differently…to make work and people epic.

These are our RADICL People Predictions for 2024

By Ken Oehler, Ph.D.

#1 Economic Pressure Keeps Worker Cost and Productivity in the Crosshairs

What’s Going On

The “soft landing” for the economy remains elusive and the combination of inflation, interest rates and upward pressure on compensation all have a negative impact on earnings.

Source: BLS and RADICL Analysis

What this Means for People

Workers can expect to feel the pinch of inflation and leaders’ reallocation of investments to achieve better growth and profitability. Specifically:

  • Price inflation feels like a 20% pay cut for many due to decreased buying power. Salary demands will increase but not likely be completely met.

  • A “Pressure Cooker” work experience with high focus on goals, performance and impact will increase.

  • Layoffs and reallocation of talent. We are likely past the big layoffs of 2022-23, but 9 out of 10 HR Leaders expect layoffs to continue in 2024.

  • Targeted investment in people. Until companies feel some economic tailwinds, we should expect only targeted hiring/people investments for high-demand job/business segments like A.I.

The Optimization Opportunity

Leaders will not be able to “cost-cut” their way back to growth. The challenge for leaders will be to simultaneously cut/reallocate cost and boost productivity. Reallocating investments away from lower-value/lower-impact areas toward productivity drivers presents an opportunity to land in the “win/win” zone between point #1 and #2 shown in the optimization graphic.

RADICL’s analysis of the top productivity opportunities:

  1. Prioritization based on customer needs

  2. Performance management that helps build needed skills

  3. Employee wellbeing

  4. Process discipline

  5. Learning opportunities that help build skills for the future

#2 Politics Impacts Leadership, Trust and Wellbeing

What’s Going On

  • A vitriolic U.S. Presidential election. Regardless of the outcome of the election, we can expect a large portion of the U.S. to be very upset. We will likely see continued polarization and volatility.

  • 6 out of 10 are unfavorable of either political party. The last few years seem to have taken a toll on favorability of - and identification with - political party leadership. Trust in leadership is low.

  • Independent voters breaking away. The increase in cynicism in the political system has resulted in a steady rise in independent voters - an indication that perhaps toxic identity politics may be slowing.

What this Means for People

  • Trust in leadership will be tested. If 2024 is anything like the 2020 election, company leaders can expect to be faced with decisions to stay objective or have opinions on candidates, truth of information, or social issues. And, employees are already expressing frustration in leaders.

  • Trust in colleagues will be tested. Unfortunately, political affiliation has become correlated with demographic profiles. Trusted connections can be undermined by faulty assumptions, lack of empathy or overt disagreements.

  • Policy decisions will affect employees. Many policy decisions directly affecting taxes, disposable income, health care, and global mobility will be debated and impacted by the winner of the 2024 election.

The Connection Opportunity

Politics will take up significant mindshare and energy in and out of work for people in 2024. Leaders have an opportunity to foster trust through listening, empathy. curiosity, being open to differing viewpoints and solving shared problems. This is a leadership imperative - to de-risk the business and drive productivity.

RADICL’s employee research from November 2023 finds that:

  • A large majority don’t have high trust in leaders. Only 20% of people have a “High Trust” relationship with leaders (executives or leaders above their manager).

  • High-trust relationships drive productivity. There is a 15pt lift in an EPIC work experience and 10pt lift in productivity above the baseline with a high-trust leader-employee relationship.

  • A neutral or limited leader-employee relationship destroys value. No relationship is as damaging as a toxic relationship to the employee experience and productivity.

2024 will test the leadership of everyone - and trust, empathy and connection are on the test. Start preparing now.

#3 A.I. Acceleration Shapes Everything

What’s Going On

We are experiencing the power curve of exponential change. Ray Kurzweil said “humans are linear by nature — and technology is exponential.” This means that 2024 will move faster than 2023, and that we will struggle to keep up.

  • Machine power has surpassed human brain power. Computers already greatly surpass human ability for information storage, processing speed and recall. Whereas, AI’s ability to show human empathy, creativity and critical thinking is lagging, the gaps are sure to continue to close.

  • 2024 will move faster than 2023. The exponential rate of machine processing power means that we are in a period of “accelerating returns.”

  • The ability to build a being that transcends human limitations is ~20 years away. These limitations include knowledge acquisition, memory, travel, health and even death. Virtual and augmented reality are already pushing the boundaries and we can expect accelerating human/AI integration in the years to come.

What this Means for People

  • Skills, work, jobs and people will be displaced. A.I.-driven bots are already displacing humans and we can expect the trend to continue. In the context of Prediction #1, we can expect companies to look for ways to reduce people-related operating cost through A.I.

  • Generative AI as a work accelerator. The Chat GPT query illustrates not just what jobs may be relaced, but also the “speed-to-value” opportunity. Whereas the response to the query may not be perfect, it greatly accelerated insights in this work product. A.I. will also create new jobs due to the need for new skills in new industries.

  • Soft Skills and Personality Matter. Technical IT skills will be of value, but the ChatGPT query illustrates how soft skills like leadership, critical thinking collaboration and personality attributes like openness, emotional adjustment and conscientiousness will be required for people to adapt to rapid change.

The Regeneration Opportunity

  • We must start thinking about 2044 in 2024. As has been documented, AI presents significant risks to jobs, privacy, security, disinformation and identity. And, we will not be able to keep up in a real-time basis. If the singularity is only 20 years away, that means we must prepare now. Linear risk management will not keep up.

  • People will need help to adapt and develop on their work journey. Developing new skills or building new connections to get a new job takes time - likely more time than the accelerating rate of technological change. Most of the soft skills and behaviors required are developed through connecting with people in the flow of work. AI could help accelerate connections and experiences that help build needed skills for the future.

  • A Regenerative Approach to Talent. Companies have an opportunity (and a responsibility) to help people not just develop new skills but to “regenerate” by teaching them how to learn and providing support through change. Given that companies will still rely on humans for many tasks without or alongside AI, it is in Leaders’ best interests to actually make people better.

#4 Attention Shifts to Solving Distributed Team Effectiveness

What’s Going On

  • The Remote/In-Office pendulum is stabilizing at hybrid. It seems that each week we hear different stories about return to office mandates. However, Barrero, Bloom & Davis’s research indicates work-from-home time has stabilized at about 28%.

  • Only 2 out of 10 people actually work on a co-located team. RADICL’s research on distributed and cross-functional (XFN) teams revealed that 66% of people are working on these types of Fluid Teams. And only 19% are working on co-located teams.

  • Distributed Work effectiveness has room for improvement. Whereas we are moving into the reality of hybrid/distributed work, our research also indicates that only 13% of Distributed Teams are highly effective as measured by collaboration and decision-making.

What this Means for People

  • Communication alignment is critical. RADICL’s data on communication preferences shows that email is preferred above face-to-face conversations. Chat, text, videoconference, and shared docs are also popular. With so many choices, purposes and different preferences, team alignment on digital modes of communication will be critical.

  • Managing time across focused, synchronous and asynchronous work with team members in multiple settings. There are times like onboarding, team kickoffs, and creative brainstorming, where synchronously in-person work may lead to better outcomes. Distributed work relies on new forms of digital synchronous and asynchronous (e.g., Shared docs) process and technology to collaborate. And employees will still need to protect their time for focused work with increased attention to collaborating differently.

The Collaboration Opportunity

Asking “how do we maximize distributed team effectiveness?” will yield better solutions than return-to-office policies. RADICL’s research identifies that distributed team effectiveness is about:

  • Coordination. Distance and time zones require extra clarity and coordination of work. Our research indicates that disciplined planning, outside-in value-based prioritization, new hybrid processes (e.g., synch/a-synch collaboration, when to meet in-person) and supporting technology accounts for 38% of distributed team effectiveness.

  • Connection. The ability to build and maintain trusted relationships accounts for 20% of distributed team effectiveness. Listening, empathy, caring, diversity, empowerment and doing great work together matter 10X more than the office (the office accounts for only 2% of effectiveness).

  • Competence. Effective distributed teams have the right people with the right skills, which accounts for 24% of team effectiveness. Team composition, leadership, feedback and development with an eye toward what the team needs will be critical for success.

#5 Talent Dynamics Force Attention onto Individuals’ Needs

What’s Going On

  • Significant skills and talent supply constrictions. 8/10 companies are facing challenges filling roles with talent with needed skills. IT/data and soft skills are in highest demand. As Boomers retire and Millennials move into management roles, Gen X and Gen Z are relatively too small to fill the respective leadership and entry level role openings created.

  • Gen Z and Gen Y bring new expectations and ways of working. Gen Y and Gen Z will make up 65% of the workforce by 2030. These generations bring greater comfort with digital communication, but also greater expectations for remote work and work filled with purpose, impact, direction, connection, identity and growth.

  • Needs for Meaning, Clarity and Connection are not being met. 80% of people do not have an Epic Work Experience complete with meaning, clarity and connection. This is not just frustrating for people but it is inhibiting productivity and growth for companies.

What this Means for People

  • Power to the People. Despite performance pressure and layoffs, lower talent supply and inability to fill open roles means power has shifted toward talented workers with more leverage to get their demands met.

  • Gen Y and Gen Z are in the driver’s seat. These younger generations will be large enough that their voice, expectations and ways of working carry a lot of weight. As Boomers retire, the relatively small cohort of Gen X employees may experience ageism.

  • Need to understand individuals’ work preferences. People are not averages - they have unique needs and work preferences. RADICL’s research in November 2023 on work preferences reveals that people have a variety of preferences for where, when and how they want to work, collaborate and communicate. In a simple example, we see very different communication style preferences by generation; whereby preference for chat, text and shared documents goes up and preference for email and phone decrease with the younger generations. This will require greater understanding among teams, but also means that how we work will be very different in the next 5 years.

The Human Opportunity

  • The Whole Person Experience. The opportunity to build more meaning, clarity and connection starts with a more holistic view of workers as diverse people with their own unique work stories. The holistic view encompasses not just work history and accomplishments, but background & identity, personality & motivations, work preferences, relationships, skills & “superpowers.”

  • Work story as the accelerant to connection. People connect by intersections of common backgrounds, interests and experiences, and understanding and valuing differences. Trusted connection is the variable at the center of many positive outcomes like engaging leadership, accelerated change, strengthening culture and performance.

  • Connection as the catalyst for impact. The large majority of people work on teams, and teams with high trust and connection outperform those who don’t. Accelerating connection through understanding the whole person creates value for people, team and organizational effectiveness.

The Opportunity to Empower Epic Work Journeys for Everyone

There is intense Company Performance, Team Effectiveness and Individual Productivity Pressure …in the context of Low Trust in Leaders, Artificial Intelligence, Skills/Talent Gaps, Generational Shifts and Distributed Teams…and Individuals need more Meaning, Clarity and Connection to have Fulfilling and Productive Work Journeys.

The RADICL People Predictions for 2024 highlight the pressing need for organizations to adapt swiftly to these changes. As we move forward, the ability to anticipate and navigate these multifaceted challenges will define the success of businesses and the effectiveness of their workforce in the years to come. Perhaps what’s more important than the extreme pressure in the system, is the significant opportunity to optimize, connect, regenerate, collaborate and re-focus on individuals in new ways to make work better

… the opportunity to make work Epic!